Does this stack up?

According to the Council conclusions published today,

The climate is changing faster than expected and the risks this poses can already be seen. We experience widespread melting of ice, rising global sea levels and increased frequency, intensity and duration of floods, droughts and heat waves.

Now I am not an expert, but this seems to be patent, verifiable tosh.

Job creation scheme

James Bartholomew has dug up the Government's press officer list.

I wonder if there are any plans to slim the number come June?

(of course I do have an interest)

Interesting Stats from Ireland

The Irish stock exchange was asked by afriend how things have been gouing since the Yes vote.

The answer back from the ISEQ was as follows.

02/10/09 3,230.82
28/10/09 2,859.05
Difference = -11.5%

Yes to jobs, Yes to investment indeed.

According to the Irish Times,

Investors decided it was “get out of Ireland day”, according to one Dublin-based share dealer.
Overall, the Iseq index closed down 6.5 per cent, worse than the performances of other European stock markets on a weak day.
“We haven’t had a day as bad as this since the Lehman Brothers collapse last year,” one dealer said.

Oh deary me.

Single European Drunkard?

Plans to introduce a single harmonised booze policy hit an academic roadblock according to the Wine Information Council.

Experts told a meeting in Brussels that,

"Greek teenage girls drink almost three times less than their Danish counterparts; young Spanish consumers drink less alcohol, but more regularly than British youngsters, who drink in greater quantities, but less often".

Adrian Furnham, Professor of Psychology at University College, London told us,

"Pan-European policies are insufficiently sensitive to have a significant effect in different drinking cultures.
Furthermore, the literature suggests that the regulatory approach is simplistic, and sometimes counter-productive - punishing moderate drinkers and leaving problem drinkers unhelped."

"To be effective, solutions must be adjusted to local needs and cultural specificities" it said. "There is no single way to consume alcoholic beverages".

Of course nowhere else in Europe are transport plans explicitly organised by those in their cups, as GK Chesterton pointed out,

Before the Roman came to Rye or out to Severn strode,
The rolling English drunkard made the rolling English road,
A reeling road, a rolling road, that rambles round the shire,
And after him the parson ran, the sexton and the squire,
A merry road, a mazy road, and such as we did tread,
The night we went to Birmingham by way of Beachy Head.

I knew no harm of Bonaparte and plenty of the Squire,
And for to fight the Frenchman I did not much desire;
But I did bash their baggonets because they came arrayed
To straighten out the crooked road an English drunkard made,
Where you and I went down the lane with ale-mugs in our hands,
The night we went to Glastonbury by way of Goodwin Sands.

His sins they were forgiven him; or why do flowers run
Behind him; and the hedges all strengthening in the sun?
The wild thing went from left to right and knew not which was which,
But the wild rose was above him when they found him in the ditch.
God pardon us, nor harden us; we did not see so clear
The night we went to Bannockburn by way of Brighton Pier.

My friends, we will not go again or ape an ancient rage,
Or stretch the folly of our youth to be the shame of age,
But walk with clearer eyes and ears this path that wandereth,
And see undrugged in evening light the decent inn of death;
For there is good news yet to hear and fine things to be seen,
Before we go to Paradise by way of Kensal Green.

Even the European Central Bank can see that the Hedge Fund Directive is dicey

It is a wonderful hedging version of Central Bankese, but it looks like ther are some concerns in Luxembourg.
So they start by not frightening the political horses in Frace and Germany,

" The ECB supports the intention to provide a harmonised regulatory and supervisory framework for the activities of alternative investment fund managers
(AIFMs) in the European Union."

But after that it the says,

"The ECB sees a potential risk of regulatory arbitrage between alternative investment fund managers, insurance companies and credit institutions, among which the proposed directive does not create a level playing field,"

Or in other words, if the EU pushes ahead with the Directive then business will sod off to places where the legislation doesn't exist.

Amusingly though it does want to ensure that central banks are exempt.

Milliband to be European Foriegn Minister?

Well that is the gossip dug up by the Guardian this evening. Weirdly though it would be appalling if it were to happen, I can see how the Europeans could see it as appealling.

1) Britain has to have one of the top jobs, mail to try to placate the UK's notorious scepticism.

2) If he got that job then Blair wouldn't become President. From what I hear Wiliam Hague's campaign is begining to bear some fruit. Brussels and the Chancellries of Europe are beginning to understand that as much as they dislike the Tories, making Blair President could spark all out diplomatic warfare with the likely incoming Tory Government. Though they could handle it (probably, they don't yet know how far they can push Cameron. He did in the end leave the EPP). However though it wouldn't be a "declaration of war" in the same way as the Blair appoitment, it would seriously piss off the Tories, particularly Hague who he has been winding up a treat over the Poles and Lithuanians in the CER.

3) He is as Iain Traynor points out "seen as the most genuinely europhile of senior people in the Brown cabinet".

Liz Lynne attempts satire

It really has to be satire, doesn't it?

"So let's have three cheers, one for democracy, one accountability, and one for the Lisbon treaty".

The bill for the EU will rise to £50 million a day

Here is Marta Andresen pointing out in pretty simple language what is going on with the EU budget this year.

What is astonishing in this time of economic difficulties is that the Council of Ministers asked for a 3% rise. The European Commission asked for a 4% rise, but the European Parliament, that circus of rectitude, has asked for and voted for a 10% rise. Which as Marta points out would push the daily cost of the EU up to a staggering £50 million a day.

The author of the report, one László Surján, a so called centre right politician from Hungary overules our doubts.

"He said the €120.5 billion suggested by council was not sufficient and that the figure put forward by parliament offers a "global solution" to all member states to cope with the downturn.

He said, "The budget for 2010 needs to be the answer to solving the economic crisis and to re-launching the European economy. Therefore, more money is needed, while respecting the principal of value for money."

Dare I said he would wouldn't he. After all his country Hungary are net recipients from the EU budget, recieving according to the European Commission figures for 2007, a mere 1.6 billion euros. What it is getting now with the downturn is anybodies guess

I am, yet again reminded of that great old saw of Milton Friedman's,

There are four ways in which you can spend money. You can spend your own money on yourself. When you do that, why then you really watch out what you’re doing, and you try to get the most for your money. Then you can spend your own money on somebody else. For example, I buy a birthday present for someone. Well, then I’m not so careful about the content of the present, but I’m very careful about the cost. Then, I can spend somebody else’s money on myself. And if I spend somebody else’s money on myself, then I’m sure going to have a good lunch! Finally, I can spend somebody else’s money on somebody else. And if I spend somebody else’s money on somebody else, I’m not concerned about how much it is, and I’m not concerned about what I get.

Sort of sums up the Parliament's position.

Spot the difference

Between Item A
The Good Food Chinese Cantonese Takeaway in Kingsway, Kirkby-in-Ashfield.
and Item B
Baroness Scotland?

The Chinese restuarant has been busted,

The people - a 31-year-old woman, 37-year-old man and his 35-year-old fiancee - were found when Immigration officers went to the Good Food Chinese Cantonese Takeaway in Kingsway on October 16. The three were found to be from Malaysia and were all put on a plane to Kuala Lumpur on Wednesday.

A fourth man, a 20-year-old Chinese failed asylum seeker, was also found and the UK Border Agency is now taking steps to remove him from the country. The business was issued with an on-the-spot penalty notice and could face fines of
up to £40,000.

Whereas of course the good Baroness was described in glowing terms by Gordon Brown this week, thusly,

"At the same time you have the Attorney General who is the first black Attorney General and a very successful one at that."

Governors barred from Westminster

The little saga of Hariet Harperson and her tropes barring access to the Houses of Parliament to the 72 MEPs in order to block vists by the BNP to Westminster is of course ridiculous.

Unpleasantly socialist they may be, unapologetically racist they are, but to suggest that overcrowding is the reason is risible. Refusal to accept the verdict ofthe electorate more like.

Of course Westminster was happy to have the Sinn Fein MEP visit last time, an unapologetic suporter of the IRA. It also seemed happy to give office space to Mr Adams and his party workers, all of whom would no doubt pass all security checks with flying colours.

However what is ironic of course is that, aprt from one or two Cabinet Ministers, MEPs have more real power to effect legislation than MPs. So why would they want to visit Westminster? It would be the political equivalent of slumming it.

Ask a stupid question.

Greece has shocked the European Union by adjusting its expected budget deficit for this year to 12.5 % of GDP, twice what was originally predicted. The announcement was made at the finance ministers meeting in Brussels yesterday by Greek Finance Minister, Papaconstantinou.

He 'fessed up about how the former government manipulated statistics and accidentally forgot to imclude include government debts in its figures.

Commissioner Almunia said the EU must investigate why and how Greece adjusted its statistical data.

He asked what?

As if we don't know. They did so in order to fraudulently join the Euro. We all know this, and the approach was more than tacitly supported by the European elite. Why? Simple. Because it was a political imperative.

I wonder how much the investigation is going to cost? And I am prepared to bet that the Commission's investigation will discover that nothing wrong happened at all desîte the Greeks admitting that it did.

Aside
Interestingly this story was brought to my attention by the Parliament's Czech press cuttings service, whereas the Greek service fails to mention it. I wonder why?

Green shoots of localism, maybe

Well it must be something like that if this press release from the dreadful British Wind Energy Association,

"Figures revealed today at the wind industry’s annual conference in Liverpool show that local council approvals of wind farm applications have fallen to a shocking new low of just 25%."

I think I need to pick myself up from the floor, but this suggests that despite the bullying, bribery and propaganda, local authorities are beggining to see through the greenwash and represent the interests of their constituents.

Stranger things have happened (not many I grant you).

But the bleating, frighteningly anti-democratic bleating that is at their conference is almost self-parody, listen to BWEA Chief Executive, Maria McCaffery MBE,

“Winning approvals at appeal is second best for everyone, it is expensive, slow and cumbersome for developers and frustrating & confusing for local people. We need a fresh, new approach to local decision making where Councils are not unduly swayed by vocal NIMBY pressure groups but make their judgements on the facts.”

That'll be the people who they represent. You know Maria, the locals. The people who live there. The constituents. The public. The voters, you know them. The ones that fill your gob with taxes, ripped unwillingly from their pockets.

And who is this jumping on the anti-democratic bandwagon with unbridled glee and expansive expenses-stuffed girth? Why it's that vile hoodlum and autocrat John Prescott,

'"It is absolutely scandalous that three quarters of all planning applications for onshore wind turbines are turned down. We cannot let the vocal minority stop our move to a low carbon economy and stop us meeting our global emissions targets.”

Vocal minority eh, so how is that they win, despite the money and propaganda poured out by your goverment you hectoring apology for a night club bouncer?

Milliband stoops to stoop

Milliband's comments today in Foreig questions were illustrative of exactly what is wrong with this government, and sadly how weak Her Majesty's Opposition are,

"The future of this country depends on whole-heartedengagement in the EU, making Britain's case and ensuring that we arepart of a mainstream majority. This Government is proud to be alongside 27 governments, 26 opposition parties in saying that now is the time to put the Lisbon Treasty into practice and to ensure that it benefits all the citizens in Europe."

Of course the one thing that this devalued Goverment would never dream of doing is 'to be alongside' the wishes of its people, no it couldn't do that, but it sides with the political elites across Europe against their people.

"It is a great pity that the party opposite is stuck in the past."

But of course it is the elite that are stuck in their centrist sclerotic past.

However the Tories were hamstrung with Hague trying but failing to put his new EP Group behind him.

The best he could come up with uis that is was a"great pity" that the Government had broken an election manifesto promise to hold a referendum on EU reform.

A great pity!

I wonder why he was as weak as that? Is it because he knows that his own party will not be able to offer his much vaunted referendum, because he knows that it will be a fait accompli and he and his cohorts haven't the stomache or the bottom to take up the cudgels required for our freedom.

Milliband is offered an easy target, no matter how disegeous he is, because the Tories have nothing to say, nothing to add.

"We stand ready to have questions on Europe, of which there are none, and debates about Europe, which you are refusing to have."

The bugger is that Millband has a point. The Tories will do anything rather than have a debate about Europe.

What business is it of his

Watching BBC News today and they are streaming from the Speaker's Conference. John Bercow it appears, has invited the party leaders to speak about the make up of their candidates lists, as to their ethnic, gender, cultural, sexuality etc. and so on.

Accordig to the Beeb he had told them he was keen to influence the way that parties select their candidates to ensure equality.

I only heard Cameron, he was talking about introducing female only short lists for by-elections.

Hold on a moment though, what business is it of the speaker to put pressure to political parties on how they select candidates?

Concentrate on your job Mr Bercow and stop grandstanding. After all making sure that the House is run properly is

Freedom go to hell

Popped down to Westminster to see the fuss around the visit of Gert Wilders to be greeted by the Islamist rent-a-mob.
Seems to me that Mr Wilders may well have paid them to turn up just to prove his point.

There again I did like the little ditty being chanted,

"UK watch your back,

Islam is coming back!"

Where was it, when was it here before... We should be told.

Is the world better?

I think we can safely say yes.


This superb gadget over at gapminder rather conclusively proves it. Fascinating and solid evidence that ecomonomic growth and globalisation saves lives. Though take a look at the end and see if you can spot Zimbabwe's death rate shoot up over the past few years.

Gapminder looks to be one of those sites that should be declared not work safe. Could spend ages gazing at statistics...

Headline Chasing

Well you have to give him credit it is a fun stunt, but their again he has a history of cunning stunts.

Chris Davies the Lib/Dem MEP for the North Western counties of England has applied for the job of President of Europe. According to PA he has written a letter to the political heads of government of the 27 countries of the European Union thusly,

"The backroom manoeuvrings now taking place are a very poor substitute for an open selection process.

We have millions of talented people in Europe, and more than half of them are women, so why is the recruitment net not being cast wider?

European citizens should be told whether this is just a beauty contest for middle aged males or a professional recruitment exercise intended to select the best person for the job, someone with ideas about how to shape Europe's future.

I am a man in my 50s, with a Cambridge University education and 30 years of political experience, I believe I possess qualifications similar to those of other potential candidates named in the media.

To my credit I can claim that, unlike some of my rivals, I have never deceived either of the two parliaments to which I have belonged, and I bear no responsibility for the illegal invasion of another country that led to the death of many thousands of innocent people.

I hope these facts will not prejudice my application.

As I said a bit of fun.

Undignified scramble on Treaty

The end game of the European Constitution still seems to have some twists and turns.

Now it seems that Polish President Lech Kaczynski is not going to sign the thing this weekend,

[Jaroslaw Kaczynski, Polish President’s Brother and leader of the PiS party] said:"Regarding Sunday night, as I heard, then according to my knowledge on Sunday evening, Mr. President will be in the Vatican. I don't think that he will be signing the Lisbon Treaty in the Vatican or in Rome.”

All very odd.

Meanwhile a succession of EU types are rolling up to Prague including Jerzy Buzek the president of the European Parliament.

And Niocholas Sarkozy has dragged the Czech Ambassador to the Elysee Palace for a bollocking.

What larks?

Free and fair vote?

This little Youtube really worries me. There is no doubt in my mind that something very funny is going on here. The rules, I understand require security at polls. There is none here.

Does it bring the result into question. Probably not, but does it bring the process into question?
Undoubtedly

Lisbon Treaty to be "fast-tracked" through Czech Court

The last shreds of hope are being blown away. According to reports today at a meeting in Brussels between Jan Fischer, the Czech PM, Barroso and Buzek, the new Prseident of teh European Parliament, Fisher told a press conference,

""Everything is in place for the treaty to be ready andimplemented by the
end of this year.
"The constitutional court is working faster. It has asked for expertopinion (on the objections raised by the senators) and everyone is ready to give that advice some time next week.
"Then we will have a better idea of when the constitutional court could take a final decision."

Now Mr Cameron, you did say that you would tell us what you do when the Treaty is ratified. Well I do hope you are ready because it looks like that day will be coming sooner than you think.

What was that 'Yes to jobs'?

Well I suppose the Irish 'Yes' slogan is right if we are talking about jobs for bureacrats. How about jobs for ordinary Irishmen and women,

Since Saturday's referendum result what do we have? (Hat tip Politics.ie)

Dundalk: It has been announced that 60 jobs are to be lost at the Moffat Engineering
factory in Dundalk.40 of the jobs to go are on the shop floor.The remaining
posts will come from administrative staff.

And,

Aer Lingus: will announce a severe package of cutbacks including up to 650 job
losses in the morning.

There are also fears of anoither 500 going at the state run Board Na Mona peat cutting plant,

Fears have been expressed for the future of 500 workers in Bord Na Mona after it
was confirmed two midlands power stations will be closed for prolonged periods
over the course of the next two years.

Not forgetting Intel, yes the firm that bunged 500,000 Euro at the Yes campaign

Meanwhile, Ireland's biggest private employer, Intel, yesterday told almost 300 workers they were being made redundant. Management met individually with the staff at the Leixlip, Co Kildare, plant to give them the bad news.

My favourite sign of economic malaise post Lisbon though has to be this,

Pupils at a national school in Co Cork have been asked to provide their own toilet paper to help off-set costs.Catherine O'Neill, the head teacher at St John's Girls National School in Carrigaline, has written to parents asking them to help the school save money

Vote Yes for Bronco!

Towler elsewhere

Over at Comment is Free

There will be more fatal GP errors
Because of European employment law, politicians are powerless to prevent more tragedies like the death of David Gray

A fine aray of unhinged comment, but hey that is what it is for after all

Will the person who swapped Dan Hannan for an inferior model please return the original?

Now I am an old friend and supporter of Dan Hannan. One of the most erudite and decent of chaps. So my only explanation for what has been going on for the past few days is that someone has kidnapped him.

Take a look at this...

1. Cameron is genuinely working to deliver a referendum on Lisbon, and may very well succeed;

What by writing begging letters to Vaclav Klaus? Who has told the Tories to frankly sod off.

2. If he’s too late to stop it, it would be silly to have a referendum narrowly on the Lisbon Treaty, in which the best we could hope for would be a return to the status quo ante – in other words, where we are now

Hold on, Dan you know that that isn't the case. The position would be very different. We would in theory be in the same place, but of course we wouldn't. Any Prime Minister turning up at the Council of Ministers in Brussels on the back of a resoundingly negative UK referendum would have, dare I say a strong negotiating position.

3. Far better to push for a wider repatriation of powers from Brussels to Westminster – not just the rights surrendered at Lisbon, but those surrendered at Maastricht, Amsterdam and Nice;

This is the dishonest Tory position of promising to do stuff that they know is covered by QMV and will never be offered up for renegotiation, unless Cameron can point to the settled will of the British people

4. Paradoxically, such a demand would be easier for the other member states to grant, since it would involve unilateral British opt-outs rather than a change in the institutional structure for everyone else;

Which paradoxically would be easier after a Lisbon referendum with 70% No vote, but functionally impossible without it.

5. Such a deal should be put to the British people in a referendum;

Which would be bizzare and based on the whim of whatever Cameron and the like felt like at the time, rather than something comprehensible of simple such as the Lisbon/constitutional Treaty. Anything else is just tinkering. And pointless.

6. There are reasons to be hopeful that all this will happen under the next Conservative government;

Do let us in on the secret, or should we just trust you?

7. David Cameron earned the benefit of the doubt when he took Conservative MEPs out of the EPP;

No, he promised and failed to deliver for years., Finally under enormous pressure from the mainstream in his party the Tories left the EPP. A good thing agreed. Now there are two eurosceptic groups in the European Parliamebnt.But that was easy in comparison to what you are suggesting will be done.

8. If we’re wrong about all this, we’ll have the argument then, but there are good reasons to be optimistic

No Dan, not nearly good enough. You want people to trust the Conservative Party with their votes, and you come up with this argument? The election is only a few months ago. The country votes Tory. Cameron renages on his vague promises, we are sold down the river, and then and only then we can have the argument.

Nah, there is no way the real Dan Hannan could have written these words. They must have been written by some ambitious Tory hack politician desperate to make up for embarrassing the leadership.

Update

This is what I mean, this is the video of Dan repeating all this stuff for the daily politics.

There are still rebellious Irishmen left

So may I salute Maurice Timony for taking on the establishment. Nice to have Philip Morris behind him as well.

He has taken a case against Ireland's tobacco display ban,

Timony said he should be entitled to display the products which the Irish government has given him a licence to sell.

"The country is swamped in legislation that is making life very difficult for compliant retailers like me. The ban on the display of cigarettes is just one example of a piece of over-regulation that has negatively affected my business," he said.

"As a law-abiding retailer, I have a responsibility to my employees to make sure that I can continue to employ them going forward. Simply put, enough is enough."

Well quite

A classic of its type: The health dictatorship

The current campaign to ban point of sale advertising for tabacco is a classic of its sort. Here in the South Shields Gazette we see a rage of aspects.

PEOPLE in North East England are calling on the region's MPs to vote in favour of putting cigarettes out of sight in shops.

Here we see it is popular pressure. "People" see...

But wait who are these people?

Ailsa Rutter, director of Fresh – Smoke Free North East, said: "This is not about penalising smokers. "We have spoken with countless people who, although
they smoke themselves, want more to be done to stop their children or grandchildren from starting.

So that is a taxpayer funded harridan and her dreams. No real people. What is more she has five years enjoy this job. A wodeful position where she can reel of dubioous statistics such as,

"35 of the deaths in the North East are due to secondhand smoke in the workplace."

As she well knows there is not and has never been any evidence that is scientifically proven to show that anybody has ever died of second hand smoke.

"Cigarette displays have got larger, brighter and more colourful since advertising was banned and these have a major impact on children and young people.

Evidence? Nope none of that.

Research has revealed that moving tobacco out of sight can help to reduce teenage smoking, after it was seen to have dropped in Iceland and some provinces in Canada after displays were removed.

How about this, can we look at this research? Well it all seems pretty shakey with wide differences of opinion on the efficacy of tobacco bans. But no question of the damage that display bans will do to smaller tobacco manufacturers (which is why big tobacco supports the ban) and on small retailers (which is why supermarkets are in favour of the ban).

This is an anti-competitive measure which will do little if anything to cut youth smoking but will, due to its associated coasts damege the independent retailers and small manufacturers.

Now there's a surprise

Irish government: There will be no third referendum

Not sure what she is smoking, but is sure ain't tobacco

Dr Janet Atherton is a proffessional busybody, she is Director of Public Health in Sefton and is Chairman of SmokeFreeNorthWest. It is wearing this second hat that she comes spectacularly unstuck in a demand that all evidence of tobacco be airbrushed out of existence,

"Research shows that 80% of smokers start before the age of 193".

Crumbs. I would have thought for once she might be right.

(Oh alright it is probably a mistake by the Wirral Globe but hey it made me laugh).

Local Taxpayers throw a party for Eurocrats

They must be so pleased. There hard earned cash being spent on a piss up for European Parliamentary types

The European Parliament (EP) is passing most of it's work in Brussels, located just at the North-Eastern part of Ixelles. On Wednesday, 07 October 2009, the EP will hold it's first Plenary Session after the June EP elections.

Therefore we as representatives of Ixelles have taken the initiative to greet the newly elected EP - with it's MEPs, staff and assistants for a welcome drink on the open space (the "Dalle") between the buildings Spinelli, Antall and Brandt.

Better still the people who are actually spending their constituents money are these two;
Willy Decourty (The Socialist Mayor of Ixlles/Elsene) and Delphine Bourgeois (Deputy Mayor in charge of European Affairs - from the Francophone Democratic Front (Peoples Front of Judea anyone?)).

It is being hawked around the Parliament by Isabelle Durant, a Green MEP and doughty fighter for the underdog.

Lawks what fun! A small local Council has a Deputy Mayor in charge of European Affairs, who would have thunk it? Well I suppose given that there are a fair few 'studio' hotels in Ixelles where you can rent by the hour she may be busy.

I wonder if local taxpayers are being invited? Because frankly free drinks in Brussels on mini plenary days are a dime a dozen for anybody with a Parliamentary pass and they will be lucky to draw a crowd.

I just hope it doesn't rain

Cyincal thoughts about the Tsunami

Now that Max Clifford is working on behalf of Loloahi Tapui, Baroness Scotland's illegal cleaner, how soon will we hear that she has been desperate to get in touch with her family, she couldn't possibly be deported to a country that has just suffered the ravages of an angry nature?

Surely Clifford couldn't sink that low...

UKIP surge in Marginals.

Last summer UKIP languished at 1% in a poll of marginal constituencuies. That is no longer the case accordig to polling done by Crosby/Textor/Pepper. Lynton Crosby, the former Tory and Libertas staffer's organisation was polling for Flying Matters (a pro flight pressure group) on marginal constituencies and discovered some interesting details,

According to the BBC report,

"It suggests that 44% of voters in key marginal seats like Crawley and Hove in the south of England would vote Tory at a general election - down from 48% last year.
Support for Labour is languishing at 20%, while the Lib Dems are down from 21% to 18%. But support for "others" - UKIP, the Green Party, the BNP and other small parties - has doubled, from 9% to 18%.

The polling suggests a surge in support for UKIP, in particular.
In summer 2008, just 1% of people in marginal seats said they would back the party at a general election. Now that figure has risen to 6%.

The poll was carried out in July but nobody seems to have noticed this aspect of the poll until now. Con Home did flag up the main parties results at the time.

If this is real, and I see no reason why not(though the proximity to the Euro electios may have some impact) then these results will have the strategists of more than one party scratchig their heads. In how many seats is 6% going to make a difference to the outcome? Where are these votes coming from? After all its not just Tories as UKIP's success in the council estates of Norwich points out. Interesting indeed.

So much for media interest

Sometimes I despair about our media. May I bring to you attention this evening's Evening Standard leader column?

Irish referendum is a problem for Britain

So far so uncontroversial, of course it is a problem, though not so much for Britain as for the political elite, so I will let that lie.

The Irish are voting on the Lisbon Treaty today. They are the only people in Europe to be holding a referendum and whatever else the vote does, it points to the bracing effect on politics that comes from an obligation to put specific issues to the people.

No they are not, they are voting tomorrow you ignorant piles of well rotted peat. For pities sake, if it is so important as to be your lead leader at least get that basic fact right. What the hell are you going to write tomorrow when they are actually voting? Astounding.

For Britain, the outcome of the referendum is anything but academic. A vote for the Treaty will put the ball right into the Tories' court.

True, very true.

Probably the last thing David Cameron wants is for the divisive issue of Europe
to resurface before a spring election but if the Irish are not obliging enough to reject the Treaty, the Conservatives will have to confirm whether they will or will not hold a referendum here.

As discussed earlier they are not going to give us a referendum.

So far, shadow foreign secretary William Hague has been opaque on whether a Tory government would do so.

For the reasons I go into.

There would be grounds for them to hold one. The treaty does indeed give the EU the appearance of a state, with a so-called president of Europe and its own foreign minister.

Of course there would, but expediency will out. The Tories canot be trusted on this, and their cheerleaders in the press less so. The Sun today, while dribbling about a Blair Presidency in weeks - (no chance before Christmas at least), now it is a Tory backing paper seems unable to see beyond its own spin, when it talks about Cameron's comments yesterday.

It would certainly give the EU a more cohesive identity; the question is whether we want that. If there were a referendum here - assuming the Czech Republic and Poland ratify the treaty - there is no guarantee that we would vote yes.

No guarantee. Have they ever seen any polling on this question in the UK. The vote would be of gagantuan proportions No. They know that, I know that, anybody this side of Mars with a vague interest in the douings of the EU knows that.

But as I said, if they canot even get the fudamentals of the date of the vote right it just suggests that they don't have the faintest interest.

Doesn't look like the Czechs will come to Cameron's aid

Reports coming out of the Czech republic today suggest that if the Irish vote Yes, the Dave will not be able to rely on Vaclav Klaus to stop the ratification of the Lisbon Treaty. At this point then his "changed circumstaces" come into play, instead we will have the 'do nothing to jepardise our relationship with Europe' style of Dave, the one that also said "I want us to be in the European Union" yesterday.

Though the Swedes, who hold teh EU's rotating Presidency wanted to get it all done and dusted - and Mr Blair who wants to be President, but that just ain't going to happen. According to the European Voice today,

Ratification of the Lisbon treaty will not be complete by the end of the year, even if the Irish vote ‘Yes' in a referendum tomorrow (2 October).

The Swedish government, which is preparing for a meeting of EU leaders at the end of October, is now resigned to forming the new Commission without the Lisbon Treaty.

These comments are supported by the Ceske Noviny,

"Within two weeks we will have stances of all parties involved and we must assess them. In any case we do not want to delay the procedure and we want to make decision as soon as possible," said Rychetsky, who is charged with the case as its judge- rapporteur."

Rychestsky is the Chairman of the Constitutional Court who will decide on the legality in Czech Law of the Lisbon Treaty. As soon as possible is being treated as sometime near Christmas, but not in time for the Swedish to take the credit.

Vaclav Klaus himself argues that he,

"intends to wait for the ruling of the Constitutional Court which a group of Czech senators has again asked to examine whether the document is in harmony with the Czech legal order.

In the article entitled "Renewed Czech Threat to Lisbon Treaty Ratification" the weekly says it might take the Czech Constitutional Court weeks or months to deal with the complaint against the treaty and it is unlikely to issue its ruling this year".

But that means that the chance that the Court will delay until May 6th just to help out Dave Cameron is ludicrous. Klaus has promised to take the advice of the Court. The Polish President has promised to ratify if Ireland does.

And Germany, Dave's last hope? Germany will ratify when everybody else has, the next day probably, just to make a point.

Not senior members of the Shadow Cabinet then

Whoops, best not comment about that.

European Parliament orders closure of Facebook Group

EuroparlTV is an expensive bastard son of the French and Dutch 'No' votes on the European Constitution. It is a vastly expensive multilingual format webtv experiment ctreated as part of the reach out to citizens envisioned in the infamous 'Plan D'.

According to its Charter,

The European Parliament has established a web television channel (called "europarltv") to respond to the right of all citizens to know and understand what is happening in the institution that they have elected. The channel is designed to contribute to the democratisation of the European Union and to the
development of a European public space.

Oh goody, that European public space. A wonderful pressure valve for the masses where they can think European thoughts, sire European children and generally behave in a communitaire fashion.

Point 4 of the Charter bears repeating,

The channel shall be developed in such a way as to reinforce interactivity between the Parliament and European citizens. It shall enable citizens to express their views on the contents of the channel and to contribute to that content.

Which is interesting. Here you would expect that the TV station would be employing all those aspects of modern communications such as Twitter, and facebook ad so on.

So imagine my surprise when I looked at my Facebook messages today and saw this message from one Andreas Dietl, who describes himself as "in charge of editing the content for EuroParl TV, the European Parliament's web-based TV channel."

EuroparlTV Facebook group closed

To members of europarltv

Andreas Dietl 28 September at 16:33 Reply • Report
Dear friends,

at the request of European Parliament officials we have to close this group.

Thank you for your interest!

Oh dear, I wonder what happened? I wonder if they were not actually particulaly happy that some of the Group members didn't like the sound of his masters voice.

So 70% of our laws do come from Brussels

This has been a long time coming, and though it is a small (but expensive) organisation I think that its admission is all the more pertient for that.

Over 70% of new UK law affecting local councils originates from Brussels. New issues on the horizon include: continuing measures to combat recession, new rules to guide shared services, safeguarding social services, new rules for structural funds, climate change.

OK, it is caveated heavily by reference to local Government, but given that HMG has been coming out with the fiction of 9.1% between 1998 and 2005 it is still a major admission.

So what will the Tories do about the Irish vote? A prediction

Nothing.

It is all very interesting what happens with the Lisbon Treaty vote. That is if you are a Tory supporter.

If they vote 'Yes' as is most likely, then the Tories are left carrying on much the same as they have for the past year, "not letting it rest there". However the Germans, have now ratified the Treaty. The Poles are unlikely to stick it out much longer - we are told it will happen before Christmas. Which leaves the Czechs. Even they, despite the indomitable Vaclav Klaus have made it pretty clear that they will have ratified "up to 6 months". The problem for the Tories with a 'Yes' vote is that the circumstances will have changed if the General Election is indeed on May 6th as is believed to be the case. For the Tories to offer us the referendum so promised would be that they would threaten to wreck their relationship with the EU, something Dave has sworn time and again not to do. Thus, he will say, with a heavy heart, that we have to honour our Treaty obligations. No referendum. Britain stuck in the EU.

But, "Don't worry", will say Dave, "Don't worry. We have made a manifesto commitment that any further Treaty that may erode our sovereignty will be put to a public vote. No further will be our message to Brussels". Sounds good doesn't it. Apart from the fact ios that it is meaningless twaddle. The 'ratchet clause' (Article 48(7)) in the Lisbon Treaty will see to that. You see, after the Lisbon Treaty has bee ratified the fact that it becomes self amending means that no new Treaties are needed, except for enlargement Treaties, and they are not constitutional.

So what happens if the Irish have the brass neck to vote 'No' again? Simples. Britain will not need a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty because it will become moribund. Remember what happened to our referendum on the Constitution. We didn't have it. Why? Because the French and the Dutch had voted 'No' so, as it was dead there was no need to revisit the corpse.

Dave would say, "Look Guys, referenda are very expensive things, we have to concentrate resources, there is no need to flog the dead horse of the Lisbon Treaty. Don't worry; we will keep an eye on Brussels. You can go back to sleep now".

But of course Brussels never sleeps. It will take a few more years but almost everything in the Treaty will come to pass, piecemeal. Spread over a number of years.

You want proof?

Look at the new EU diplomatic Corps. The External Action Service. It has no legal base, it is indeed illegal under the current Treaties, But trust me it exists. Go here for evidence.

Britain will not have a referendum on Europe. That is unless people vote for a party like UKIP that means what it says. If enough do then our political elite will have to act.