"It suggests that 44% of voters in key marginal seats like Crawley and Hove in the south of England would vote Tory at a general election - down from 48% last year.
Support for Labour is languishing at 20%, while the Lib Dems are down from 21% to 18%. But support for "others" - UKIP, the Green Party, the BNP and other small parties - has doubled, from 9% to 18%.
The polling suggests a surge in support for UKIP, in particular.
In summer 2008, just 1% of people in marginal seats said they would back the party at a general election. Now that figure has risen to 6%.
Thursday, October 01, 2009
UKIP surge in Marginals.
Last summer UKIP languished at 1% in a poll of marginal constituencuies. That is no longer the case accordig to polling done by Crosby/Textor/Pepper. Lynton Crosby, the former Tory and Libertas staffer's organisation was polling for Flying Matters (a pro flight pressure group) on marginal constituencies and discovered some interesting details,
According to the BBC report,
The poll was carried out in July but nobody seems to have noticed this aspect of the poll until now. Con Home did flag up the main parties results at the time.
If this is real, and I see no reason why not(though the proximity to the Euro electios may have some impact) then these results will have the strategists of more than one party scratchig their heads. In how many seats is 6% going to make a difference to the outcome? Where are these votes coming from? After all its not just Tories as UKIP's success in the council estates of Norwich points out. Interesting indeed.