So what will the Tories do about the Irish vote? A prediction

Nothing.

It is all very interesting what happens with the Lisbon Treaty vote. That is if you are a Tory supporter.

If they vote 'Yes' as is most likely, then the Tories are left carrying on much the same as they have for the past year, "not letting it rest there". However the Germans, have now ratified the Treaty. The Poles are unlikely to stick it out much longer - we are told it will happen before Christmas. Which leaves the Czechs. Even they, despite the indomitable Vaclav Klaus have made it pretty clear that they will have ratified "up to 6 months". The problem for the Tories with a 'Yes' vote is that the circumstances will have changed if the General Election is indeed on May 6th as is believed to be the case. For the Tories to offer us the referendum so promised would be that they would threaten to wreck their relationship with the EU, something Dave has sworn time and again not to do. Thus, he will say, with a heavy heart, that we have to honour our Treaty obligations. No referendum. Britain stuck in the EU.

But, "Don't worry", will say Dave, "Don't worry. We have made a manifesto commitment that any further Treaty that may erode our sovereignty will be put to a public vote. No further will be our message to Brussels". Sounds good doesn't it. Apart from the fact ios that it is meaningless twaddle. The 'ratchet clause' (Article 48(7)) in the Lisbon Treaty will see to that. You see, after the Lisbon Treaty has bee ratified the fact that it becomes self amending means that no new Treaties are needed, except for enlargement Treaties, and they are not constitutional.

So what happens if the Irish have the brass neck to vote 'No' again? Simples. Britain will not need a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty because it will become moribund. Remember what happened to our referendum on the Constitution. We didn't have it. Why? Because the French and the Dutch had voted 'No' so, as it was dead there was no need to revisit the corpse.

Dave would say, "Look Guys, referenda are very expensive things, we have to concentrate resources, there is no need to flog the dead horse of the Lisbon Treaty. Don't worry; we will keep an eye on Brussels. You can go back to sleep now".

But of course Brussels never sleeps. It will take a few more years but almost everything in the Treaty will come to pass, piecemeal. Spread over a number of years.

You want proof?

Look at the new EU diplomatic Corps. The External Action Service. It has no legal base, it is indeed illegal under the current Treaties, But trust me it exists. Go here for evidence.

Britain will not have a referendum on Europe. That is unless people vote for a party like UKIP that means what it says. If enough do then our political elite will have to act.

Circumstances always change

But belief systems should be strog enough to absorb those changes. Not Dave's at least, not his much vaunted belief in the primacy of our law, tradition and what have you. Well not if the comments he made to LBC are anything to go by. "Now, if those circumstances change, if the Germans ratify, if the Poles ratify, if the Czechs ratify, if the Irish vote Yes to the treaty, then a new set of circumstances [apply], and I will address those at the time." The Witterer puts it quite well

"Not only does he want the UK to remain a member of the EU, but he will not consider a move that could lead to Britain leaving the EU - something which is
sure to please his Eurosceptic members! Neither does this latest statement address the problem of why, if we are a trading nation, that we should be co-operating with our allies and friends in Europe....of course we should"

Look mate, what is astonishing is that Dave is prepared to lead his party into
General Election without giving the slightest indication of how he
will handle the European Union. The European Union which even official
sources now accept creates at largest 70% of out laws.

Why bother to vote for a party that hasn't an opinion on the vast majority of legislation, or if it does have an opinion, isn't prepared to let the British public know what it is for fear they may react.

Well Dave, it just won't wash, the people of our country deserve to be told what is happening and not to have the elite, new or old withhold information from them. It is apparent that he has learnt nothing from the scandals of the past year. People are fed up with that old style, 'the elite know best' attitude.

Warning signs for Dave

Political betting has pointed out an interesting little detail in the ICM poll this week that put Cameron below Ming Campbell in the political beauty contest,

The above is part of the detailed data from yesterday’s ICM poll in the Guardian and has figures which should be deeply worrying for the Tory leadership.
The section I reproduce shows the current voting intentions of those who said they voted for the three main parties in 2005 and the figure that stands out is the proportion of 2005 Tory voters who now say they will switch to UKIP. From a quick scan through the records this is the highest this has been.
Until now there’ve been lots of threats on CONhome and from writers like Simon Heffer of a desertion of traditional Tory voters to UKIP and this simply has not been shown in the polling data - that is until this latest survey.
Normally the number of Tory>UKIP switchers has been at 1% or even less. This figure is quite startling.

Little birdy tells me..

My informants tell me that tomorrow David Cameron will be making a big statement about the European Constitution. It seems that he will be calling for a referendum.

Yipee-di-doo

It seems that it is felt that the throw away demands of William Hague are not enough to placate the Tory faithfull, they want leadership, and they want Euroscepticism.

So expect a strong statement from Dave demanding that there be a referendum; that Gordon Brown stand by the manifesto comitment. Dave strong to the last.

But wait (stop giggling at the back) will he answer two basic questions?

1) If Brown goes ahead as he has promised and pushes through ratification through Parliament, will Dave make a commitment to offer a referendum on the Treaty - as a manifesto commitment, if the Tories are fortunate enough to win the next election?

2) If a referendum is called will Dave campaign for a 'No' vote given that everybody apart from him will be saying that a No vote will be regarded as a vote to leave the EU?

Update
So it apears I was too optomistic and the little birdy was wrong. Normal Tory equivocation continues.

OK, the speech

So the reports are now coming in drips and drabs from Dave's speech.
First the Guardian,

David Cameron today pledged that a future Conservative government would pull out of the EU social chapter as a "top priority".

Or more specifically,

The Tory leader said: "That's why I do not believe it is appropriate for social and employment legislation to be dealt with at the European level.

"It will be a top priority for the next Conservative government to restore social and employment legislation to national control."

Which is funny, because as Mr Barroso pointed out in a written answer to Nigel Farage last week,

E-0171/07EN
Answer given by Mr Barroso
on behalf of the Commission
(26.2.2007)


The Commission assumes that when the Honourable Member refers to the Social Chapter in the Treaties, he is referring to the social provisions contained in the articles 136 to 145 of the EC Treaty. These provisions are part of the whole Treaty and cannot be isolated. All Member States are bound by the Treaties they have signed and ratified and which have entered into force, including the social provisions they contain. Consequently, a withdrawal from these provisions by a Member State would require an amendment of the EC Treaty in accordance with Article 48 of the Treaty on European Union.

What this means of course is that for Dave to be able, as Prime Minster to withdraw from the no longer existent Social Chapter he would need unanimity from the other 27 EU Member states. Now given that one of them is called France, either Mr Cameron is stupid, or he is being dishonest with the British electorate, you choose.

What came next? Oh yes the Constitution,

Mr Cameron will say: "There are two ways that a British politician can speak in Europe. One way is to posture for the TV cameras back home and boast of your determination to stand up for the national interest. And then, later - inevitably - to agree to whatever proposal is on the table.

"This government's record on the EU Constitution is a study in how not to deal with the European Union. First, they were against the constitution. Then they were for it. Then they signed it. Then they refused a referendum on it. Then they agreed a referendum.

"Now they're briefing against a new constitution but they don't have the courage to oppose it in public. And they're in favour of a referendum but they don't really want one.

"They've had seven different positions. I've only ever had one. I'm against a European Constitution and I'm in favour of a referendum if one is ever proposed."

Now Dave as we hear is against posturing. So this promise for a referendum on the Constitution is a damned good thing would you not agree. Aha, but that is before you do any textual analysis on this.
"I'm against a European Constitution and I'm in favour of a referendum if one is ever proposed".
But if you have been following the news the one thing that will not be proposed is a Constitution. A Basic law maybe, or a mini-treaty, but not a constitution. The fact that they are the same thing is irrelevant. The Eurocrats have learnt one thing. I think it was Chirac who first complained about the name Constitution, thinking that if it hadn't been called that then the people of France would have supported it.

Now take a look at what Geoff Hoon, the apology for a Europe Minister has said recently on the same subject,

Europe Minister Geoff Hoon said the title "constitution" was partly to blame for the rejection of an EU treaty by French and Dutch voters in 2005, confirming Britain would prefer a simplified document.

"I think what happened in the referendums that took place in both France and the Netherlands was that there was a great deal of concentration on the word 'constitution' and perhaps not enough concentration on what the European Union actually does," Hoon told ITV1's The Sunday Edition.

"It seems to me much better, instead of talking about details of alleged constitutions, that we actually concentrate on what the European Union does for its citizens and make sure that that is the debate that we have," he added.

And more specifically on the Referendum pledge,
"We've made it clear that if the constitutional treaty comes back in its present form then there would be a referendum,"
As one national journalist who was there tiold me this afternoon,
"You couldn't slide paper between the Conservatives and the Government's position on this. It is obvious that Cameron feels he has beaten Euroscepticism in his own party".

the rest of the speech was bleating on about the, "3G Europe that focuses on globalisation, global warming, and global poverty".

G1 - Globalisation. The way to address the problems facing the countries of the European Union in reference to Globalisation, is not through half hearted schemes like the Lisbon Strategy. It is by reducing regulation, disposing of the mantra of the precautionary principle and fighting against the rampaging harmonisation of everything from taxes to the symbols on your pint glass. The EU is the problem, not the answer.
G2 - Global warming. Well even Mr Mirek Topolanek disagreed with you about that, and he is your only serious ally. Not only that but your proposals on this would vastly increase the power of the EU over our lives through the introduction of draconian green legislation and taxation. 20% carbon reduction in 10 years. Yeah right.
G - 3 Global Poverty. OK, scrap the CAP and allow the South, third world, developing world or whatever you want to call it to trade freely with the EU.
No can do, the French (amongst others) would, and have vetoed that suggestion. So again you are being disingenuous Dave.

So any of you Tories out there who thought that Dave could provide a bulwark against the encroaching mass that is the EU, please rethink your faith. You have had it dashed before, you will have it dashed again.