Europe's imperial arrogance

The long history of Turkey's attempt to join the European Union has been fraught with misunderstanding, anger and bad will over the years. The hoops expected of the Turks have been smaller and smaller. Ever since 1963 when Turkey first became an associate member the promise of membership has been dangled with increasing demands.

Today the EU surpassed itself.

Turkey must coordinate its foreign policy with the European Union, the bloc’s executive warned on Tuesday as it presented its annual report on the country’s progress towards EU membership.

In the report itself it says,

"Turkey has achieved a high level of alignment in the area of external relations. However, further work remains to be done in many areas, in particular on the general system of
preferences with regard to its geographical coverage".

Turkey has its sphere of influence in the Turkic nations, and Europe has hers. From what the EU is saying now they seem to think that what's theirs is theirs, and what is Turkey's is theirs too. How very 19th Century.

Others have learnt not to push Mehmet around.

Turkey gets it, so why doesn't the Tory Party?

Vienna's Die Presse has an article about Turkey's attitude to the EU that should be compulsory reading at the FO. Translated by those helpful folk over at Presseurop.eu it starts pretty baldly,

One day Turkey will run the EU

OK, got your attention?

"When Turkey becomes a member of the EU, it is not going to be in a secondary position, that's one of the reasons why countries like Germany and France are quite nervous about our membership," Turkish vice-premier Ali Babacan declared at a World Leadership Forum in New York during the recent UN plenary session.

The thing is you see he is right. And the article goes on to explain why. Demographically, economically, geographically and so on.

At present, Turkey is the 17th biggest economy in the world. Experts predict that in 20 years it will make the top ten, outstripping countries like Spain and Italy. According to forecasts by the IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and the Vienna Institute of Demography, the Turkish population will be around 85.5 million by then – surpassing Germany, now the most populous nation in the EU.

If Turkey were to be admitted into the EU despite resistance from countries like Austria, Germany and France, it would dominate policy in the EU institutions. Even as things are today, Turkey would be the second biggest political force in the European Parliament and on an equal footing with the heavyweights on the EU Council.

Although the EU power structure will have to be gradually adjusted under the rules of the Lisbon Treaty, not much would change for Turkey. By dint of its rapid demographic growth, Ankara’s influence would actually increase, since the number of seats in Parliament and the new representation ratios in the Council will essentially be based on population size

So just get this straight, the Government tells us that it is uncomfortable with greater and greater EU power. It says that it wants to protect and even increase UK power in the EU. But it fully supports Turkey's accession to the EU, which would be dint of the basic rules governing the club reduce our power at the table.

Go figure.

Now they might say that Turkey is likely to be more pro US, more pro free trade than many of the countries of old Europe. But can they really be so confident? The growth of political Islam in that country and recent noises by the Erdogan government (the constitutonal referendum for one) suggests to me that the current position that Turkey holds on these matters are friable.

The article also points to Gerhard Schroeder in die Welt,

“Without Turkey the EU will sink into mediocrity,” writes the Social Democrat ex-chancellor, pointing to the rapid pace of growth there: this year alone the Turkish economy will grow four times as much as the French and twice as much as the German economy. Schröder expects Turkey to be the fourth or fifth biggest European economy in 20 years. Then there will be no ignoring it.

It will if our Government have anything to say the Turkey, not the Elephant in the room.

The Sublime Porte of entry

Farage has reacted with some anger to news that the three establishment parties are all supporting Turkish entry into the EU,

Establishment Parties all agree Turks should be allowed to move to the UK

The Foreign Secretary, William Hague and the Lib/Dems, Ed Davey all agree Turkey should join the EU. "They seem to care more about the Levant than they do about the UK", said Nigel Farage. "In order to appear inclusive they reject the opinion of a vast majority of their own country".

Between them the three establishment parties show yet again the utter contempt they feel for the people of Britain. No poll has ever suggested that Turkish entry into the EU would be anything other than wildly against the wishes of Britain".

To witter on about immigration policy in the EU as Ed Davey did is absurd, and if he doesn't know it then he should resign from his post. The fact is that the UK can do nothing about immigration from within the EU, and if Turkey was to join then 74 million Turks could, if they wished, move here. The provisions available to stop them are meaningless as the evidence from Bulgaria and Romania has shown." he went
on.

Milliband says it is "remarkable" that there is agreement amongst the three establishment parties. It is not remarkable at all. They all believe that Britain should cease to be a self governing country, just as they agree we should remain in the EU. They are a shower who deserve to be thrown out of all their offices as soon as this election finally comes".

Not only is this stupid politically for the big three it is also morally reprehensible when it comes to Turkey. The years of blandishments from Western European politicians about possible EU membership for Turkey has an enormous and damaging impact on the body politic of Turkey itself. The majority of secular, democratic politicians in Turkey have aligned themselves to the hope of EU accession. This sort of statement from teh Hague/Miliband/Davey troika gives them hope.

But the fact that France Austria and possibly othetrs are allowing themselves referenda on the subject means that there is no way Turkey will join.
In turn this makes the decent Turks look like dupes of the west, and plays seriously into the hands of the Islamists who are continualy gaining ground in Turkey.

Way to go boys, way to go.

We should offer Turkey preffered trading status at least, or full free trade, but not offer false hopes of accession.

Public Interest Notice

Can I suggest that you do not go to St Joost or Schaerbeek tomorrow? This is for the simple reason that, from information I have received from local shopkeepers and cafe owners there is a major demonstration planned for the morning. Not only is the Turkish community planning to put upwards of 10,000 people on the streets, but so is the local Kurdish community. Both of these planned demonstrations have been banned by the police, but in the light of the rioting here over the last week, I wouldn't put much confidence in the manifestation not going ahead.


This picture should give you an idea of how the area is getting pretty tense. The flags are not for fun, and the streets are oddly quiet.

What is not completely apparent is that many of the Turkish flags being flown (this photograph was taken this morning at the end of my street) have the head of Kemal Attaturk superimposed upon the crescent and star.

In this quarter one often sees Turkish flags flying, particularly when Galatasaray or Besitkas are playing but these are new. I have never seen these flags before, they are all the same and brand new. They of course show show support for the Kemalist constitution and are nationalist rather than Islamist.

There are strong suggestions that the Turkish community are in part being directed by the Turkish authorities, who are displaying a show of force at the heart of the EU. They are not happy about the way in which the EU has been stringing them along over accession, they are not happy about suggestions that the EU might recognise the Armenian massacres as a genocide and they are not happy about the response of the EU to the PKK incursions into Turkish territory in the last weeks.

Brussels, the rumours are saying, is to learn about the power and discipline of the Turkish people.

Odd co-incidence

I have just been told that the Turkish quarter in which I live has today become a blaze of red crescent flags, easily outnumbering the smattering of Belgian flags that have popped up in recent weeks defending the Belgian state. Now I would not like to be Kurdish in my area, only a few months ago the local Kurdish social centre was torched in an attack that provoked a few nights of rioting.

This latest outpouring of Turkish nationalism is sparked by the goings on in Eastern Turkey with the Turkish army responding to an ambush by the Kurdish PKK guerrillas.

But hang on, that attack which killed a number of Turkish (edit - thanks Helen) troops, and lead to the kidnap of a number more took place in the early morning of Sunday. What else was happening on Sunday in Turkey. A constitutional Referendum, calling for the President to be elected by universal suffrage, and for elections to take place every 4 rather than 5 years.

Both these measures are seen by the Islamist government as essential in their fight to overturn the secular constitution of that country.

Now it would be wrong to suggest that this Turkey/Kurdish kick off has been created to ensure a favourable result for the Government, but it wouldn't be the first time that such things have happened.