Ancram's dream of Unicorns

Michael Ancram is releasing a paper today on a new vision for Britain in the World. Previewed (and with a Forward) by Peter Oborne in the Daily Telegraph it makes genmerally positive noises about Britain, our place in the world and where we might consider going. Britain's Foriegn policy must,

be based strictly and exclusively on our national interest with a fully coordinated foreign, security and international aid policy, properly resourced.

But spot the problem

First, Britain should be the dynamic bridge between the EU and the USA, and between both the EU and the US with the Commonwealth. Second, Britain should actively propagate a reinvigorated and refocused NATO. Third, Britain must act as a credible facilitator in the world of conflict resolution. We should use our historical experience, often learned the hard way, to facilitate and influence conflict resolution in the Middle East, Afghanistan and elsewhere. We should retain the capability to back up such efforts where required with hard power, but it should in future largely be delivered in the form of Special Forces operations rather than heavy deployment of men and machinery on the ground. And fourth, Britain should be an active member of an increasingly dynamic Commonwealth.

Did you spot the Unicorn?

What I mean by a Unicorn is an unrealistic wish. I would love to have a silver winged unicorn stabled in my garden. On it I would soar to the Barbary Coast and drink from the perfumed fountains of the Menara. Or maybe I could travel to the Golconda and dangle pearls in front of oil-bellied nautch girls. Or maybe I should just deal with the world as it is, rather than something so impossible to be in the realm of fantasy.

Ancram's approach to the EU is of the Unicorn variety.

He asks a pertinent question,

whether the present direction of the EU is any longer relevant to current
international developments

And answers his own question,

The ever closer union of the Lisbon Treaty, an increasingly monolithic and bureaucratic institution, is the antithesis of the elasticity and flexibility which the EU will increasingly need to display.

Yay... Tory Grandee finally gets it. The EU is not designed to deal with the modeen world, and it is not in Britain's interest to be involved with it, in the way that it is presently constructed. Obvious response. Then can we leave it please?
But wait, what new thinking does the Marquess of Lothian offer us,

What the United Kingdom should strive for is a Europe of nations rather than a nation of Europe. Those who wish to unite or coalesce should be allowed to do so, while those who wish a more flexible relationship should be permitted to achieve that too.

Oh bejesus, that has been the position of the Tory party since Maastricht in 1992, it has got nowhere, and is going nowhere. It has been rejected so many times by our friends and allies in Brussels and the Chanceleries of Europe that it is a stuck record. If, by some weird chance this was posible it would have been done by now.

The time for incremental tinkering with Europe has passed, as has the time for blindly marching towards ever closer union. It is time to construct a new more flexible outward looking Europe for the 21st century, and it is in the interests of all members of the EU to work towards it.

In Britain we can really lead the way, not as ‘eurosceptics’ but as the architects of a more dynamic Europe which in the years ahead will prove ‘fit for purpose’ in a way that the current EU is singularly failing to do.

Reading this it is astonishing to think that he was previously the shadow Foriegn Secretary. He knows that what he wishes for is impossible, that the collegues would never acceed to his hopes. Yet he continues to publish them as if they were in some way novel, or indeed possible.

Sadly, though I agree wholeheartedly with the drive of his paper, nothing that he calls for can take place whilst we remain in the EU. He knows that and should have the intellectual honesty to admit it.

Turkey gets it, so why doesn't the Tory Party?

Vienna's Die Presse has an article about Turkey's attitude to the EU that should be compulsory reading at the FO. Translated by those helpful folk over at Presseurop.eu it starts pretty baldly,

One day Turkey will run the EU

OK, got your attention?

"When Turkey becomes a member of the EU, it is not going to be in a secondary position, that's one of the reasons why countries like Germany and France are quite nervous about our membership," Turkish vice-premier Ali Babacan declared at a World Leadership Forum in New York during the recent UN plenary session.

The thing is you see he is right. And the article goes on to explain why. Demographically, economically, geographically and so on.

At present, Turkey is the 17th biggest economy in the world. Experts predict that in 20 years it will make the top ten, outstripping countries like Spain and Italy. According to forecasts by the IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and the Vienna Institute of Demography, the Turkish population will be around 85.5 million by then – surpassing Germany, now the most populous nation in the EU.

If Turkey were to be admitted into the EU despite resistance from countries like Austria, Germany and France, it would dominate policy in the EU institutions. Even as things are today, Turkey would be the second biggest political force in the European Parliament and on an equal footing with the heavyweights on the EU Council.

Although the EU power structure will have to be gradually adjusted under the rules of the Lisbon Treaty, not much would change for Turkey. By dint of its rapid demographic growth, Ankara’s influence would actually increase, since the number of seats in Parliament and the new representation ratios in the Council will essentially be based on population size

So just get this straight, the Government tells us that it is uncomfortable with greater and greater EU power. It says that it wants to protect and even increase UK power in the EU. But it fully supports Turkey's accession to the EU, which would be dint of the basic rules governing the club reduce our power at the table.

Go figure.

Now they might say that Turkey is likely to be more pro US, more pro free trade than many of the countries of old Europe. But can they really be so confident? The growth of political Islam in that country and recent noises by the Erdogan government (the constitutonal referendum for one) suggests to me that the current position that Turkey holds on these matters are friable.

The article also points to Gerhard Schroeder in die Welt,

“Without Turkey the EU will sink into mediocrity,” writes the Social Democrat ex-chancellor, pointing to the rapid pace of growth there: this year alone the Turkish economy will grow four times as much as the French and twice as much as the German economy. Schröder expects Turkey to be the fourth or fifth biggest European economy in 20 years. Then there will be no ignoring it.

It will if our Government have anything to say the Turkey, not the Elephant in the room.

So William Hague has his next big Foriegn Policy Speech, this time in Tokyo. And what is the FO highlighting. That he is bigging up EU trade with the Japanese. Not you will note the UK's trade with Japan.

The maximum removal of both tariffs and non-tariff barriers could deliver
an estimated €43.4 billion of additional EU exports to Japan and €53.8 billion
of additional exports from Japan to the EU,

Now correct me if I am wrong, but Mr Hague is travelling as the UK's Foriegn Secretary. His trip was funded by UK taxpayers, and ghis job is reliant on UK votes.

So what the hell is he playing at.

Well it is rather simple isn't it. He knows as well as I do that international trade is no longer what the EU call "a national competance". The UK no longer has a seat on international trade bodies, and cannot engage in any trade negotiations with third parties.

It is up to Brussels, not to the DTI whether we have free trade with India or Outer Mongolia. It is up to Brusels to decide how open our markets should be to Commonwealth countruies.

Thus when he is Tokyo, he goes not as our elected Foreign Secretary,but as a pimp for the EU.

Who cares iF Germany exports masses to or imports masses from Japan. It is none of our business.