One day Turkey will run the EUOK, got your attention?
"When Turkey becomes a member of the EU, it is not going to be in a secondary position, that's one of the reasons why countries like Germany and France are quite nervous about our membership," Turkish vice-premier Ali Babacan declared at a World Leadership Forum in New York during the recent UN plenary session.The thing is you see he is right. And the article goes on to explain why. Demographically, economically, geographically and so on.
At present, Turkey is the 17th biggest economy in the world. Experts predict that in 20 years it will make the top ten, outstripping countries like Spain and Italy. According to forecasts by the IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and the Vienna Institute of Demography, the Turkish population will be around 85.5 million by then – surpassing Germany, now the most populous nation in the EU.So just get this straight, the Government tells us that it is uncomfortable with greater and greater EU power. It says that it wants to protect and even increase UK power in the EU. But it fully supports Turkey's accession to the EU, which would be dint of the basic rules governing the club reduce our power at the table.
If Turkey were to be admitted into the EU despite resistance from countries like Austria, Germany and France, it would dominate policy in the EU institutions. Even as things are today, Turkey would be the second biggest political force in the European Parliament and on an equal footing with the heavyweights on the EU Council.
Although the EU power structure will have to be gradually adjusted under the rules of the Lisbon Treaty, not much would change for Turkey. By dint of its rapid demographic growth, Ankara’s influence would actually increase, since the number of seats in Parliament and the new representation ratios in the Council will essentially be based on population size
Now they might say that Turkey is likely to be more pro US, more pro free trade than many of the countries of old Europe. But can they really be so confident? The growth of political Islam in that country and recent noises by the Erdogan government (the constitutonal referendum for one) suggests to me that the current position that Turkey holds on these matters are friable.
The article also points to Gerhard Schroeder in die Welt,
“Without Turkey the EU will sink into mediocrity,” writes the Social Democrat ex-chancellor, pointing to the rapid pace of growth there: this year alone the Turkish economy will grow four times as much as the French and twice as much as the German economy. Schröder expects Turkey to be the fourth or fifth biggest European economy in 20 years. Then there will be no ignoring it.
It will if our Government have anything to say the Turkey, not the Elephant in the room.