Wednesday, September 29, 2010

Turkey gets it, so why doesn't the Tory Party?

Vienna's Die Presse has an article about Turkey's attitude to the EU that should be compulsory reading at the FO. Translated by those helpful folk over at it starts pretty baldly,
One day Turkey will run the EU
OK, got your attention?
"When Turkey becomes a member of the EU, it is not going to be in a secondary position, that's one of the reasons why countries like Germany and France are quite nervous about our membership," Turkish vice-premier Ali Babacan declared at a World Leadership Forum in New York during the recent UN plenary session.
The thing is you see he is right. And the article goes on to explain why. Demographically, economically, geographically and so on.
At present, Turkey is the 17th biggest economy in the world. Experts predict that in 20 years it will make the top ten, outstripping countries like Spain and Italy. According to forecasts by the IIASA (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis) and the Vienna Institute of Demography, the Turkish population will be around 85.5 million by then – surpassing Germany, now the most populous nation in the EU.

If Turkey were to be admitted into the EU despite resistance from countries like Austria, Germany and France, it would dominate policy in the EU institutions. Even as things are today, Turkey would be the second biggest political force in the European Parliament and on an equal footing with the heavyweights on the EU Council.

Although the EU power structure will have to be gradually adjusted under the rules of the Lisbon Treaty, not much would change for Turkey. By dint of its rapid demographic growth, Ankara’s influence would actually increase, since the number of seats in Parliament and the new representation ratios in the Council will essentially be based on population size
So just get this straight, the Government tells us that it is uncomfortable with greater and greater EU power. It says that it wants to protect and even increase UK power in the EU. But it fully supports Turkey's accession to the EU, which would be dint of the basic rules governing the club reduce our power at the table.

Go figure.

Now they might say that Turkey is likely to be more pro US, more pro free trade than many of the countries of old Europe. But can they really be so confident? The growth of political Islam in that country and recent noises by the Erdogan government (the constitutonal referendum for one) suggests to me that the current position that Turkey holds on these matters are friable.

The article also points to Gerhard Schroeder in die Welt,
“Without Turkey the EU will sink into mediocrity,” writes the Social Democrat ex-chancellor, pointing to the rapid pace of growth there: this year alone the Turkish economy will grow four times as much as the French and twice as much as the German economy. Schröder expects Turkey to be the fourth or fifth biggest European economy in 20 years. Then there will be no ignoring it.

It will if our Government have anything to say the Turkey, not the Elephant in the room.


cuffleyburgers said...

It is self evident that Turkey should be in the EU as that is the only mechanism we have for forcing our dear friends in Brussels to give us our country back.

Schroeder is correct to say that without Turkey the EU will sink into irrelevance - and I'm no admirer of Schroeder.

Besides the Turks are thoroughly good fellows - compared to the French or the Belgians, they are comparatively Anglophile, demographically young, hardworking, and given half a chance there is a strongly secular culture. In my experience most turks are cool about their religion, much as most British.

However the most likely scenario is that the Turks will be excluded, will get the huff and this will lead to an increasingly anti-western political position. The EU will muddle on without them progressively piling discontent among its component peoples, and eventually there will be a mildly violent reaction, a break away group will form which will insist on repatriation of powers, and some of the core group members will use this as an opportunity for force out unwanted members of the euro such as romania, and greece. Countries like Holland will be torn between their anti-federalist instincts and their founder member status... belgium will cease to exist...

Probably in my lifetime - time to stock up on the colt 45 ammunition , matches and candles

Gawain Towler said...

Sadly I am not as sanguine as you are, though your description of Turks you know accords with those I know, but I only know nice secular middle class ones in Istanbul and Ankara. I understand that they are not the majority.

But I think that your prescription is a pretty dangerous one. I agree that the way that Europe has behaved has unwittingly helped the Islamists in Turkey, and continues to do so. Turkey will not joining the EU, one of the countries will veto it, Austria maybe, or France, I don't know who but it will happen. The nice secularists3s goose will be cooked at home and they wioll go down to a horrile political defeat.

The UK, by continuing to offer an unrealistic hope (and by the way latest polls in Turkey suggest that only 36% want EU membership these days) will only damage the secularists more.

Matches and candles - you will need those anyway because of the climate agenda and EU CO2 targets.

Small arms, not sure if they will be enough

Anonymous said...

If Turkey gets into the EU it will be the greatest disaster to befall Europe since the rise of Hitler. Europe will become Eurabia. Already the Muslim populations are growing at a dramatic pace in all west European countries. In Britain, the Muslim demographic is expanding 10 times faster than the rest of the population. With numbers comes growing political influence, influence they will use to change our countries in fundamental ways, and not for the better.

It is time our political elite snapped out of it, and terminated this insane project. Look at all of the elections held in Europe this year. In every one of them an anti-Islam party from outside the political mainstream has been a determining influence on the election results, including Britain where UKIP prevented a Conservative majority.

There are only 15-20 million Muslims in the EU currently, causing no end of problems. Almost every day there are reports of terrorist attacks carried out, terrorist attacks thwarted, rioting, demands for special treatment, subversion of our way of life (even Baroness Warsi is now saying Muslim vote fraud cost the Conservatives the last election).

If all of these problems are caused by 15 million of them, how much sense does it make to throw open the gates to 80 million more? It really is as if our political elites want to commit civilisational suicide.


There are at least 50 million muslims in europe at present,and thier rapid expansion is simply because we pay them to breed,cut child benefit and they will think twice before burdoning the indigenous population with more spastics imbeciles and retards,much the same is true of polygamy ,if mo had to pay for his three or four wives out of his own pocket,instead of sticking stupid whitey with it the problem will evaporate,the turk is not our friend anymore than the average muslim is,they both have the same agenda,and that is our dispossession from our lands,culture and future.

H said...

If the Turk becomes rich, I imagine that a lot of the objections to Turkish membership will fall away.
As things stand, official British support for Turkish membership is simply a ploy to slow down or reverse the centralising trends of the EU, as no one wants to be dictated to by an EU in which Turkey is influential