Latest polling confirms that people want out of the EU

The Angus Reid polling organisation have today released their latest EU relate polls. And yet again we can see the massive disconnect between the political elite and the people they purport to represent. Indeed yet again we see that on this, as on so much the settled opinion of Britons chimes most closely with UKIP.

53% say EU membership has been negative for the UK; 33% believe it has been positive
46% would vote to leave the EU in a referendum; 26% would vote to stay in
83% would vote against the UK adopting the euro

The final questions relate to Cameron's ghost veto, which as we know was popular,

61% agree with the Government’s decision to reject the new EU treaty

But of course Angus Reid are merely compounding the myth that there was a Treaty on the Table for Cameron to Veto.
Finally and quite the siren sound for Dave comes the 56% who would like to see the Coalition split and for their to be a snap General Election.

For what it is worth

I  have written to my MP,

Dear Mr Hughes,

As you are only to aware the the Business Committee yesterday timetabled a debate and vote upon the thorny question of giving the people the chance to vote in favour of staying in the European Union by means of a referendum.

As my MP, and as a Liberal Democrat, a party it must be remembered supported the  idea of a referendum on an In/Out question I would ask you to support this motion, by voting Yes to an In/Out referendum. To do so would give the people of this country the chance to dcide on their own future, and it would also allow you to vote along your party's pre-Coaltion agreement stated position.

I look forward to hearing from you before next Thursday, the 27th of October when the debate and vote wil be taking place.

Yours sincerely,

Gawain Towler

I am not expecting much to be fair

That Referendum debate

Ok, so I am a little bit jaded. Yes I do think that having a debate on the issue is a good thing. I would think that if it were around the water cooler, or in the pub, or indeed in the House of Commons. The more that people debate the issue the better, but I am distinctly unenthused by this.


Listen to the statements of  both parties. Please note that neither Cameron, nor Milliband, nor even Clegg have bothered to make a statement but have left it to spokesmen to comment, which tells you a lot abut the whole affair.


Here is the Tory comment,

"I imagine we will establish the whipping arrangements nearer the time but we have a very clear policy on that and that is set out in the coalition agreement.We would expect MPs and ministers to follow the Government's policy."

And here comes Labour,

"Britain should be focused on creating the jobs and growth we desperately need, not cutting ourselves off from major export markets that British jobs depend on.

"The European Union should focus more on supporting growth and jobs, but a referendum on pulling out of the EU is a distraction that would create uncertainty for business and risks much needed investment in the UK."

Its not just the dismal predictability of the debate itself, and worse still the knowledge that it will be lost, and those who would see us remain in the stifling embrace of the European Union claiming that was it, we have had our discussion, now go back to sleep. It is this dull incomprehension from those that purport to govern us that sticks in the craw.

The Tories will put down a fierce whip to show their own party backbenchers who is boss. And Labour shows  the lack of imagination which will ensure that spend plenty of time on the opposition benches. They have a glorious opportunity here to stick one to David Cameron. Outflank him, cause him massive disruption, and at the same time prove that they can read the tea leaves and believe that people should decide their own future. But no, instead they retreat to the idiocies of the past.

Are we cut off from America, from India, from 95% of the worlds population? No of course not, would we be cut off from the markets on the continent, to ask it is to show the utter dullard thinking that emanates from Victoria St.

The only good thing I can see coming out of this is that any sneaking idea the supporters of the three main parties have that their own parties will do something about our relationship with Europe must at last be torpedoed. Any future candidate who claims to be a Eurosceptic in order to head off the threat from UKIP will, if they fail to vote in favour of this measure be seen as wanting. And yes, we will be making that point loud and clear across the country, in surgeries, in letters, in the local press and elsewhere.

They do not deserve you support, as they do not give a damn what you think.

Iceland: Delusion vs Reality

There are two views of the possibility of Iceland joining the EU. One is from Brussels/Strasbourg typified by the following release from the EPP,

On Thursday, MEPs supported a Resolution on Iceland's Progress Report 2010, concerning the country's EU membership bid, by a large majority. Iceland is already part of the European Economic Area (EEA) and its legislation is to a high extent aligned with that of the European Union. For the moment, the screening process is still in progress and the first negotiation chapters might be opened during the summer.


The Rapporteur, Cristian Preda MEP, welcomed the reforms increasing the independence of the judiciary, while stressing the need for a thorough implementation of these measures. He also noted that he hopes for a positive result to the Icesave referendum this Sunday, allowing the negotiations to concentrate on substantive issues instead of bilateral conflicts.

MEPs also encouraged Iceland to keep up a good pace in the ongoing negotiations on mackerel quotas, in particular with the goal of reaching "a Resolution of the mackerel dispute based on realistic proposals which safeguard the future of the stock, protect and maintain jobs in the pelagic fishery and ensure a long-term, sustainable fishery."

Here is the voting in the Parliament, pretty conclusive, No?

So it is apparant from this that the accession of Iceland to the EU is a done deal...

Or not, if we look at the reality,

The vast majority of Icelanders are still opposed to joining the European Union according to a new opinion poll published today, March 17, in the business newspaper Viðskiptablaðið. 55.7 percent oppose EU membership while 30 percent favour the step. 14.2 percent are uncertain.


A recent poll by Capacent published on March 10 put the opposition to EU membership at 50.5 percent, the support at 31.4 percent and the uncertain at 18 percent.

The last poll before that was published by Capacent in July 2010 putting the opposition at 60 percent, the support at 26 percent and those uncertain at 14 percent.
Every poll published in Iceland since August 2009, made by different polling companies, has shown a large majority of Icelanders against joining the EU and only about 1/3 in favour.

They are desperate aren't they.

Loading the dice with your cash

http://www.flickr.com/photos/magical_greece/395952913/

They are changing the rules on political funding in Brussels to ensure that your money can be spent on running campaigns in any future EU referendum,

Today a report was passed in the Constitutional Affairs Committee of the Parliament which now moves up to the plenary. The report, called the the Giannakou Report after its draftswoman Marietta Giannakou (illustrated to the right in a former incarnation as the Religious Affairs Minister of Greece) who was on the Convention which drew up the European Constitution, is titled,

A Draft Report on the application of Regulation 2004/2003 on the regulations governing political parties at European level and the rules regarding their funding

In it we see this,

30. Points out that since 2008 European political parties have been entitled to use sums received as grants for ‘financing campaigns conducted ... in the context of the elections to the European Parliament ...’ (Article 8, third paragraph, of the Funding Regulation); further points out, however, that they are prohibited from using these sums for financing ‘referenda campaigns’; considers that the reason for this is probably a concern that European parties and foundations could interfere in the domestic affairs of Member States; believes, however that, if European political parties are to play a political role at EU level, they should have the right to participate in such campaigns as long as the subject of the referendum has a direct link with issues concerning the European Union;

Thus they would be able to shovel taxpayers money to the pro-EU side, indeed that would be the express purpose of the change in the law.
 
What is more this recital was amended as it went through the Committee. Amendment 95 by one Andrew Duff, Lib Dem MEP for the Eastern Counties and federast supreme. What did the Duffer succeed in doing, well he removed this sentence,

considers that the reason for this is probably a concern that European parties and foundations could interfere in the domestic affairs of Member States

In other words he whitewashed any suggestion that the EU at one time recognised that there are some aspect of national democracy where it shouldn't interfere.

This is a direct attempt to find extra taxpayer funding for the Yes side in any forthcoming EU referendum in the UK. They are as aware of the liklihood of an In/Out referendum in the UK sooner or later and have every intention of loading the dice with taxpayer's money. As things stand the UK is affected in the sense that of the parties elected to the European Parliament and that have Political Parties at a European Level, that is the Tories, the Greens, the Labour Party and the Lib Dems are all formally partisans of an 'In'.

Think about all this. What this means is that money donated to the Lib Dem Euro political party, by someone living in France, could be used to fund a pro-European referendum campaign in the UK by washing it through the European Poltical Party. Neat eh?
 
In direct contravension of British electoral law, but so be it.

By derailing the Referendum lock, will Lib Dems derail the coalition?

We all know how happy both the Tory and Lib Dem activists and back benchers are with the coalition. But in order to get on with being in government they are apparently prepared to forget their beliefs and put their shoulders to the wheel.

The Coalition Agreement is what they have to fall back upon.

We agree that we will amend the 1972 European Communities Act so that any proposed future Treaty that transferred areas of power, or competences, would be subject to a referendum on that Treaty - a 'referendum lock'. We will amend the 1972 European Communities Act so that the use of any passerelle would require primary legislation.

Now of course I don't believe that the 'referendum lock' is any such thing. As has been said, it is a lock so feeble that it could be picked by a toddler. But to the party loyalists, it is a shibboleth they can cling to. They can whisper the mantra to themselves,

"Dave is a sceptic, Dave is a sceptic" as meaningless as a cargo cult and about as effective, but it makes them feel better.

Any direct attack on the Coalition Agreement is indeed a direct attack on the Coalition itself. So a direct attack on this by a senior Lib Dem, should be seen as a declaration of war against the Government, by one who is supposed to be inside the tent.
Andrew Duff a senior Lib Dem MEP has called for an amendment of the Treaty specifically to kybosh the Referendum Lock. Worse still is that Clegg seems to be well aware of what he is up to.

"Nick Clegg understands my thinking of the matter very well."

As Euractive reports,

his intention was to solve "the British problem," as he called it, and to counter the "referendum lock" that Britain put on any future EU treaty changes involving transfers of power to Brussels

It also has a copy of the letter,

Duff's proposed Treaty Amendment

So what is Mr Clegg doing to reign in his fanatics? Nothing. What is the coalition doing to stop one of their own undermining its foundation document. Nothing.

They just hope if they stay silent then nobody will notice.

Boris adds a little more pressure on Cameron

In today's Telegraph Boris uses his normal mixture of hyperbole and whimsy to link Gaddafi and Gordon. He is trying to stick it to the AV referendum.

But he leaves a final barb at the end for iDave.

By all means let us have a referendum – the one we were promised, on the Lisbon EU Treaty. Have you noticed the EU policy on North Africa? Have you heard much from Baroness Ashton? Shouldn't we have a vote on all that?

Of course Mr Johnson shows his customary 'away with the faeries' aspects here. He calls for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty, a game that has been over for months. The troops have moved on, jeepers even Labour has moved on from the Lisbon Treaty. Today the call is for an In-Out Referendum, rather than on the minutiae of the Lisbon Treaty, welcome though that would have been at the time goven that all promised some such.

That being said it all increase pressure on IDave, particularly when he has stated on Al-Jazeera his considered opinion was that,

'I don't believe an In/Out referendum is right, because I don't believe that leaving the European Union would be in Britain's interests'

As Dan Hannan points out,

Just for a moment, though, forget about forecasting the outcome. Instead, stand back and ask yourself whether it is right in principle to consult the country. As this blog never tires of arguing, it is hard to think of a clearer textbook example of where a referendum is proper. The European question divides the parties internally; it’s a matter of major constitutional importance; there is public demand for a vote; there is a disjuncture between Parliament and people; and, not least, the three parties keep promising to hold such a ballot.

There is something faintly surreal about holding a referendum which no one asked for on a voting system which neither of the two Coalition parties supported, while refusing to hold one which the country does demand, and which both Coalition parties were recently pledging. What is the point of consulting people on how to elect their MPs, but not on whether those MPs should run the country?

Labour taking the option?

Following up my post of yesterday the noise about a possible Labour in/out referendum which has been swirling around Labour blogs. No it seems as if the Labour party heirachy are taking the suggestions seriously to the as this article in the Independent.

Sunder Katwala, general secretary of the Labour-affiliated society, said: "There is unlikely to be a referendum on British membership before 2015. But there must be a good chance of a referendum by the time of the 50th anniversary of the last referendum to stay in, in 1975, in order to settle the question of British membership."

He admitted that a plebiscite could create economic uncertainty, but said that the risks of losing the vote were not a good argument against holding one.

Wayne David, the shadow minister for Europe, said: "The Labour Party is having a fundamental policy review and this is one of the things that will be considered." He was "still to be convinced," he said, but some Labour figures believed a referendum would "lance the boil" of Euroscepticism.

Of course this is only a few straws in the wind, but in the absence of policy which is where Labour is at when it comes to Europe, and great glowing stick of dynamite is a wonderful thing to chuck under the cabinet table

No wriggle room say Govt

David Liddington the current Europe Minister was baffling away on the Today program this morning, trying to persuade us that the Europe Bill being debated today in the House is substantial,

"We are saying any future change to EU treaties, however minor, will be subject to a full Act of Parliament.

"Any extension of EU competencies, (such as) a decision like joining the euro, would have by law to go with a referendum. There would be no wriggle-room for the Government.

Yeah right Mr Liddington. Why am I not convinced?

Please note that "any future change to EU treaties, however minor, will be subject to a full Act of Parliament."
So what. This is not any future changes will be subject to a referendum is it. And with your vast payroll vote, any future changes can be whipped through with the support of her Majesty's opposition who agree with you on maintaining the EU status quo.

Thus when the Treaty changed last year in the light of the Bail out, there was a heavily whipped vote. But the people did not get their say.

And you still keep for yourself the right to decide what is, and what isn't "extension of competencies".

I am sorry but I, and the majority in the country don't trust you or your government on this. And more, you know it.

The wriggle room you mention, is that the one with the Elephant in it?

We don't want it. We don't like it and we want out

This is the pretty clear message from today's poll on the EU by Angus Reid,

Asked what they thought of the idea of joining the Euro the figures were.

No - 80%
Yes - 8%
Not sure- 10%
Not vote -3%

Asked whether they thought that the EU had been good or bad for Britain the votes were

Bad - 59%
Good - 29%
Not sure - 12%

Asked how they would vote in an in out referendum

Out - 48%
In - 27%
Not sure 21%
Not vote 4%

That is 64% of those who currently have a view would vote to leave the EU.

So do tell me political elite, why is it that you will not give the people a say in their own governance?