Sunday, November 07, 2010

Damn the weather

Here are the Meterological Office Ensemble-mean maps for Dec/Jan/Feb, they forecast temperatures between 1°C & 1.5°C above average.

And their European long-range probability maps are forecasting the following probability;

So they suggest temperatures at above average with a 60-80% confidence
Temperatures average with a 20-40% confidence
Temperatures below average with a less than 20% confidence.

So that'll be another warm winter, just like last year, which make this forecast feel so encouraging,
Heavy Rain & Heavy Snow
The rain will turn to snow above 400 m, giving accumulations of up to 5 cm on higher roads. The snow may drift in strong to gale force winds, with gusts of up to 60 mph possible.
That's below average I guess


banned said...

Sorry mate both links >
"Met Office Page not found".

A week or so ago the Telegraph published a snippet headlined "Dress up well, the Met Office promise a warm winter in their seasonal forcast".

So I went to the Met Office seasonal forcast page to steal their graphic in case they changed it (unnanounced) as they did halfway during the past winters cold snap.

There was the following statement (from memory).
"The Met Office no longer provides 3 monthly (seasonal) forcasts so any media reports suggesting otherwise are ill-informed."


So if snow only occurs above four hundred meters most of us will not see any.

Anonymous said...

That's always the biggest laugh is it not.
The way the Met Office cannot get the weather right 3 months hence.
Yet they spew out Global Warming propaganda about the climate in years to come.
Shows just how stupid anyone who believes it actually is .
hmm hmm ,no names mentioned.

Gawain Towler said...

I will try and sort the links, funny they worked for me