Wednesday, September 21, 2011

"time is running out" for Cameron as UKIP rises

You might think I would say that, but in this case it isn't me, but the highly respected Hudson Institute in New York.

In an article out today A. Millar looks at the Conservative Party of today and wonders where it is going and what it is, at heart for.

His conclusion should encourage UKIP supporters no end, but also poses the party a challange.Essentially is UKIP up to taking up a bigger role?

Aruging that it is the Conservatives failings, notthe Lib/Dems activities that is causing Cameron and the Government problems he says,
In power just over a year, the Conservative-LibDem coalition Government has more or less continued the policies of the much-detested former Labour Government. It is not worse, perhaps; it is simply that there has been no discernable positive change. Yet, to blame the LibDems is merely to shift the blame. The Conservatives dominate the coalition. They would also have won a historic number of seats in Parliament had they discussed the substantive issues, and promised essentially conservative measures, during the election campaign.

Of course this goes against the CCO spun narrative, that the Tory party must move to the centre, while ignoring its base. But it has purchase as millions ofthose who thnk of themselves as tribal Conservativbes see their own party wandering off into the muddled middle.
After more than a year in power, the verdict on the Conservative Party is damning. For those who support Israel; who believe the UK should withdraw from the EU; who believe in law and order and strong military deterrence; who want to see immigration cut and the English treated fairly, there is simply no possibility of supporting the party as it currently exists under David Cameron.

Historically this didn't matter, after all where could the disgruntled Tory voter go. Millar points out that there is now a vessel to hold those votes.
This is something that the United Kingdom Party's leader, Nigel Farage, understands. He believes that his party will not only pick up the protest vote (which has previously gone in large part to the LibDems), but will continue to pick up more Conservative votes, as the party's faithful realize that they have elected merely a version of New Labour.

Of course this requires UKIP to be able to move up a gear and become relevant across a whole platform of policies but the prize is great,
Although Farage's message will resonate with some former Labour and LibDem supporters, it is clear that he has set his sights on disgruntled conservatives who had naively looked on Cameron as the last best hope to revive England. Many had already realized that, under his leadership, the Conservatives had turned into little more that a version of New Labour, and had defected prior to the election.

In 2010 the UKIP vote cost the Conservatives ten seats and an outright majority. Farage is clearly aiming for more than that in the next election. He wants to win seats and to replicate the success his party has had in EU elections, and in local and UK national elections. "If you're a patriotic, Euro-skeptic, Conservative voter," Farage announced at the annual conference, "under David Cameron you're party has now ceased to exist. If you want to vote for what you believe in, you must come and vote UKIP."
The challange is their and the prize is nothing less than our countries freedom.
If Cameron wants to prove Farage wrong, time is running out.


Anonymous said...

Hard to disagree with the conclusion. Except as a former Con, now Ukip’er, I would rather us not be seen as an ex-Conservative party. We need a distinct identity and welcome all comers, including like me, working class people who’s family would never dream of voting Conservative.

Anonymous said...

I am a former member of the Conservative Party. UKIP should be very wary of taking on ex-Tories - many of them are toxic. It is not something that should be encouraged.

Major Robins said...

I agree with the anonymous post of 9:50am Some Tories are very toxic and like their leader are only out for themselves. After 13 years of useless Labour and 16 months of the 'New Cons' I cannot understand why the public would vote for Lib, Lab or Con but as always, Joe Public does not know what he wants only that he does not want what's in power at the moment! Anybody left that can think for himself should know by now that the only way left is to vote for UKIP. We do need the 'proper, decent,honest politicians to defect from their parties (Lib Lab Con) and to leave their corrupt, biased, useless, Eton educated, colleagues to sink at the next election (soon I hope).

Gawain Towler said...

The toxicity of various former Tories has entered UKIP legend, but speaking as one myself I don't want to tarnish myself with my own brush.

That being said I would entirely agree that the core UKIP messages are notr exclusive to a right of centre audience. Tell me who suffers from poor schooling, poor crime and underfunded armed forces?

It isn't the classic Tory voter

Anonymous said...

I agree with Gawain Towler in every point, but would like to add that the people that suffer most from uncontrolled immigration are also in general, not CONservative voters.

Whether UKIP is up to the task, I would say yes, not being from the political classes its leadership is ready to make the sort of decisions that the LibLabCON will not make, and it is quite clear that the cobbleition is not up to the task.

The LibLabCON has become afflicted by a sclerosis that emanates from Brussels... It doesn't matter what happens (world events), the "project" comes first. The "project" is an exercise in anti-democracy, and ultimately this sort of thing does not last for long.

Finally, the UKIP appeals to those of a more libertarian leaning whether from left or right, their policy of local direct democracy, is a positive concept which few would regard as unacceptable, it has the effect of putting personal and family responsibility at the heart of self government.... genuine subsidiarity!