Thursday, September 29, 2011

The good news keeps coming for Brussels

Or rather it doesn't. Bloomberg have just produced their quarterly survey of their subscribers and it makes pretty dire reading.
About three-quarters of those questioned this week said the euro-area economy will fall into recession during the next 12 months and 53 percent said turmoil will worsen in a banking sector laden with government bonds, according to the quarterly Global Poll of 1,031 investors, analysts and traders who are Bloomberg subscribers. Forty percent see the 17-nation currency bloc losing at least one member in the next year.
And it gets worse
Fifty-six percent said they will reduce their exposure to the euro in the next six months and even one in three inside the region plan to. Half of all investors said they expect the Euro Stoxx 50 index to fall.
and worse
The debt crisis is raising questions about whether the 12- year old currency bloc can maintain its current form. While 4 in 10 respondents said they expected a nation to leave within a year, a further 32 percent said a member would leave in two to five years. Fifty-one percent said the euro zone would collapse at some point although only 8 percent expected that to occur in the next year.
That is a full 72% reckon that in the next few years at least one country will be forced out of the Euro.

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