Thursday, February 24, 2011

We are all going to drown

I love certainty in science. Absolute conviction of the truth. Here is some.
How Rising Sea Levels Will Affect the US Coastline
Scientific projections call for sea levels to rise by one meter by then, and this area is particularly flat and low-lying, much like the Netherlands.
For all the ensuing centuries, sea level will rise another meter for each century at the current rate of global warming. "According to the most recent sea-level-rise science, that's where we're heading," said lead researcher Jeremy L. Weiss, a senior research specialist in the UA's department of geosciences. "Impacts from sea-level rise could be erosion, temporary flooding and permanent inundation."
Worried, I am
If sea level rise was to continue up to six meters, about one third of the land area in all US coastal cities would be affected.
In 600 years, by gad.

Lets think back. You are standing at the field of the battle of Tannenberg, in five years Henry V would kybosh the French at Agincourt. In Geography towns like Shipden still proudly existed on the coast of Norfolk.

See what I mean, the idea of being certain of something (Will) is absurd. Looking at the abstract of the work that evinces this absurdity one can see that though their is a little more reticence, note the use of the word, "Plausible",
recently published work estimates that global sea level rise (SLR) approaching or exceeding 1 m by 2100 is plausible,
the bonkersness remains.
emissions over the 21st century will not only influence SLR in the next ~90 years, but will also commit Earth to several meters of additional SLR over subsequent centuries. In this context of worsening prospects for substantial SLR, we apply a new geospatial dataset to calculate low-elevation areas in coastal cities of the conterminous U.S.A. potentially impacted by SLR in this and following centuries. In total, 20 municipalities with populations greater than 300,000 and 160 municipalities with populations between 50,000 and 300,000 have land area with elevations at or below 6 m and connectivity to the sea, as based on the 1 arc-second National Elevation Dataset.
They are talking about town's populations in 600 years time!!

1 comment:

WitteringsfromWitney said...

Its called weather forecasting and you know just how good at that the BBC and the UEA are!

I'd say 'storm in a teacup' but, as they say, you get what you earn.....?

And boy, have we earned it by allowing these prats to keep reading their tea leaves!