In the tables we have question 10
If a General Election were held tomorrow, which one of the following parties would you be most likely to support in your constituency?
Which has UKIP polling 5% nationally with a couple of high spots, the South (not London) at 7% and at 6% at the North. We are doing particularly badly in London at only 3%. The figures get more interesting when you factor in likely to vote where UKIP is now at 7% nationally the South and 8% in the South.
Small beer I might agree, when the Tories are looking at 40% in the same graph, but given that the much vaunted Greens languish at 3% in the poll it begins to look quite good. Now I ahve no idea what this does to Tory/Labour marginals and/or Tory/Lib Dem marginals but I would expect that the campaign team in Tory HQ might be looking at the figures with a certain queasiness.
Particularly given the generally accepted figures of 27 seats lost to UKIP last time on far smaller figures. And even more so when only 2% of those questioned for this poll voted for UKIP in 2005.
Cameron's evasions, dissembling and so on on the Lisbon Treaty, and immigration and his head in the sand approach to the way that the man made global warming debate is heading may well have something to do with this.