Monday, September 21, 2009

Lisbon Treaty on the Rocks

News reaches me from Irelad, if so it looks like the game is afoot

A new opinion poll shows that there has been a massive surge in support for the No side, which, if it holds till voting day would result in the Lisbon Treaty being heavily defeated by a margin of 59% NO ‘V’ 41% YES.

In one of the largest polls of its kind ever carried out: Gael Poll polled 1,500 respondents in Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford, Kilkenny, Galway, Athlone, Tralee, Dundalk and Letterkenny over the course of six days last week.

The respondents were asked one single question: How do you intend to vote in the Lisbon Treaty Referendum?

A substantial 723 (59 %) said they intended voting No as opposed to 502 (41%) who indicated that they would vote Yes. The survey also showed that 15% percent of voters were still undecided. When pollsters discounted the don't knows: an overwhelming 59% of people would vote No in the referendum as opposed to 41% who indicated that they would vote Yes.

The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners.

On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country.

If this in no rogue, and Mick Fealty tells me any poll over 1200 in the Repuublic has to be taken seriously (margin of error of approx 3%) then this is very serious infdeed. Mike Smithson over at political betting is, I hope going to check o the methodology.

Cripes, Dave Cameron might have to fulfill that promise.

Now wouldn't that be grand!


Fausty said...

Woohoo! Heeerrree's hoping!

Recently, it emerged that opinion polls were fiddled by those commissioning them, in cohoots with the polling organisations, so as to influence public opinion.

More on this poll here.

Anonymous said...

Fausty, that would be the best news I have heard for a long time.
Do you know how, Irish people, get to vote if they are now British citizens? I believe every vote counts! I have been asked this question before and I still do not know the answer.

Anonymous said...

Onlty Irish citizens resident in Ireland can vote

Captain Ranty said...

This is fantastic news!

The Irish simply must vote NO in their millions.

The EU needs to be smothered. It has grown far too big for its boots.


Anonymous said...

Linking here:

Anonymous said...

i do hope that its a no vote. that we have to vote again is simply insulting. it is in no way democratic.

Nevore said...

He did indeed check the methodology, and the polling group, and to all intents and purposes this seems to be a straw poll of "friends and family" of a group of die-hard no-voters.
I'm surprised they didn't jury rig the no-vote to higher margins!

13th Spitfire said...

Mate, the Irish will vote 'yes' and Dave will not hold the referendum. He has nothing to win on it.

Felix said...

Pleace vote for democracy and against the treaty of lisbon

Dear irish people!

Pleace stop the treaty of lisbon! Is is antidemocartic, militaristic, antisocial. The disadvantages are much bigger, than the advantages. The EU can live with its actuell laws. They should only be changed into a democratic direction. With the treaty of lisbon, the european council is able to change this treaty in great parts without asking the parliament. This is nearly the same law, which mades the nationl- rassistic- party of Germany so powerfull in our country in the year 1933. Our basic law (the german constitution) and all other european constitutions should not be replaced by the treaty of lisbon. But the new treaty tries to bring all right- sytstems in a lower level than the new european right. Here is my informationpage: . When you have some more english information, pleace send me a link or text or write it into the visitors book of my page. And pleace spread this text all over Ireland.

In the hope in your activities for a better Europe, Felix Staratschek, Freiligrathstr. 2, D- 42477 Radevormwald (Germany)