A new opinion poll shows that there has been a massive surge in support for the No side, which, if it holds till voting day would result in the Lisbon Treaty being heavily defeated by a margin of 59% NO ‘V’ 41% YES.
In one of the largest polls of its kind ever carried out: Gael Poll polled 1,500 respondents in Dublin, Cork, Limerick, Waterford, Kilkenny, Galway, Athlone, Tralee, Dundalk and Letterkenny over the course of six days last week.
The respondents were asked one single question: How do you intend to vote in the Lisbon Treaty Referendum?
A substantial 723 (59 %) said they intended voting No as opposed to 502 (41%) who indicated that they would vote Yes. The survey also showed that 15% percent of voters were still undecided. When pollsters discounted the don't knows: an overwhelming 59% of people would vote No in the referendum as opposed to 41% who indicated that they would vote Yes.
The last Gael Poll which was published in the Irish Sun (June 4th 2008) accurately predicted that the Lisbon Treaty would be defeated by a margin of 54 % for the No side versus 46% for Yes campaigners.
On the day of the count -which took place nine days later- the actual result was 53.4% No and 46.6 % Yes.The uncanny poll prediction which was out by only a half a percent was the most accurate poll in the country.
If this in no rogue, and Mick Fealty tells me any poll over 1200 in the Repuublic has to be taken seriously (margin of error of approx 3%) then this is very serious infdeed. Mike Smithson over at political betting is, I hope going to check o the methodology.
Cripes, Dave Cameron might have to fulfill that promise.
Now wouldn't that be grand!