Thursday, January 20, 2011

UKIP's polling improves, but should be better

The PM's long term strategy team should be having a few concerns. According to Anthony Wells, and pinged around the 'tinterweb via Tim Montgomery he is commenting that UKIP are now beggining to see a significant and lasting benefits from the shambles that is outr government. Interestingly the latest YouGov figures on Lib Dem to UKIP switchers seems to mirror what Smithson highlighted yesterday to some incredulity. According to YouGove the switchers Tory  - UKIP and Lib Dem - UKIP are about the same which tallies with Ashcroft's Old and Sad post election poll.

Now tie this in with the energetic debate going on on Con Home relating to the new(ish) research about the sort of people who vote UKIP, and the predictions being made by the reports authors, Dr Robert Ford of the University of Manchester and and Dr Matthew Goodwin of the University of Nottingham, viz.
UKIP has now emerged as a potent competitor on two very different fronts. On the one hand, UKIP is tapping into widespread Conservative scepticism about Europe to win over large numbers of Tory voters at European Parliament elections. But in Westminster elections, UKIP is also attracting a very different following. The party is becoming an outlet for the frustrations of voters who are angry about rising immigration, anxious over the presence of ‘threatening’ Muslim communities, and cynical about mainstream politics, but repelled by the BNP’s reputation for racism and fascism.
Now, if all this is the case, and we are as far away from an election as we suspect, then the likelihood of UKIP topping 8% across the country in the next Westminster poll is high. We have after all never been anywhere near this level at this stage of the electoral cycle. What this means for the European elections is even more moot. It appears that Nigel Farage's stated belief mentioned to Alex Singletion isn't as some would wish, hot air.
I was having a beer with Nigel Farage recently when he came out with a most remarkable statement. “UKIP,” he declared, “will win the next European election.”
If UKIP are looking at these polling numbers, what does that do in a FPTP election when the parties are squabbling over reduced majorities? What indeed. And what, while he remains committed to the coalition can Cameron do about it?

1 comment:

13th Spitfire said...

He can do the same old same old I suppose; actually give us the damn referendum and then there wont be any more fuss.