Monday, December 12, 2011

This will really annoy our Continental Friends

As we know, Standard and Poors has warned all the Eurozone countries, including the AAA pack, with a one or two tick downgrade. Now according to Zero Hedge, Moodys has been so impressed with the deal struck last week that they are threatening much the same.
As a result, the communiqué does not change our view that the crisis is in a critical, and volatile, stage, with sovereign and bank debt markets prone to acute dislocation which policymakers will find increasingly hard to contain. While our central scenario remains that the euro area will be preserved without further widespread defaults, shocks likely to materialise even under this 'positive' scenario carry negative credit and rating implications in the coming months. And the longer the incremental approach to policy persists, the greater the likelihood of more severe scenarios, including those involving multiple defaults by euro area countries and those additionally involving exits from the euro area.
Given that they are also treporting that the UK's rate is stable, how annoyed will the French and others be if despite everything they do they get a downgrade and the UK, Switzerland and Norway are the only ones not to be hit?

1 comment:

banned said...

It would be amusing to see the Euro downgraded but I'd feel sorry for Greece if the Nu Drachma went straight from Junk to Junk-.