Tuesday, May 13, 2008

Serbia pro-EU. Are we sure about that?

We have all read the headlines and heard the news. "It was the EU what won it". There was Mark Mardell in Belgrade going on about the shock result by which the anti-EU nationalists of Kostunica were ditched by the people of Serbia in favour of President Tadic's pro EU coalition.

But hold on a moment, what were the results?

An examination of the actual results (if you can find and interpret them) reveals that anti-EU parties won at least 127 seats and pro-EU parties at most 123.

Tadic' pro-EU allies are the LibDems and (some, or all) of the ethnic minorities (102+14+ 7 = 123 max)

Kostunica's anti-EU allies are the Radicals and the Socialists (30+77+20 = 127 min)

Tadic bloc: 38.75%, 102 seats
Radicals: 29.2%, 77 seats
Kostunica bloc: 11.3%, 30 seats
Socialist bloc: 7.6%, 20 seats
Liberal Democrats: 5.3%, 14 seats
Ethnic minorities: 2.3%, 7 seats
Total seats: 250. Parties forming a coalition need to have at least 126 between them
Source: State Electoral Commission, based on nearly 98% of votes cast.
Attempting to discount this - without admitting that it is a problem - commentators are hinting that the Socialist Bloc might defect to Tadic. However, the Socialists are not talking to Tadic, about forming a coalition, but to Kostunica!

Obradovic: Meeting With Kostunica Today
BELGRADE - Representatives of the Socialist Party of Serbia-PUPS-United Serbia (SPS-PUPS-JS) coalition should on Tuesday start talks on forming a new government of Serbia with Democratic Party of Serbia (DSS) leader Vojislav Kostunica, SPS Vice-President Zarko Obradovic said late on Sunday.

Interestingly Mr Mardell is beginning to feel that he had the wool pulled over his eyes.


Anonymous said...

Good to have you back posting again.

aguirrezabal said...

Am I the only one to find the EU's attitude towards Serbia obscene? "Vote for the goodies and we'll take off those visas, and who knows, you might get some euros in the near future"

This said, I hope they do join soon.

Great to have you back.